The Asian World Cup qualifiers’ group stages kick off early on Thursday morning (GMT), and Will Burns shares the second part as he delves into the afternoon games for the initial round of matches. Prices are accurate as of the time of posting.
🇮🇷 IRAN vs. HONG KONG 🇭🇰
Thursday 16th November – 14:30 GMT
⚽️ Iran win to nil
⚽️ Iran to score 4 or more goals
💷 2pts
Best Odds: 2.38 at Sky Bet
A substantial gap in class is evident as 21st-ranked Iran (FIFA World Rankings) faces off against 150th-ranked Hong Kong in a match where the favourites are expected to secure a comfortable victory. Iran, under the guidance of home grown coach Amir Ghalenoei, boasts a wealth of top-tier talent compared to the less esteemed Hong Kong.
FC Porto’s prolific forward, Mehdi Taremi, leads the attacking line and is poised to enhance his impressive record of 39 goals in 72 caps for his country, making it likely for him to find the net at least once in this match – if only the bookies allowed such a market. Sardar Azmoun, a former standout at Zenit St. Petersburg and a reliable presence in anytime goalscorer markets, will commence the game with the aim of adding to his tally of 47 goals in 73 appearances.
Supplying opportunities for Taremi and Azmoun are the likes of Alireza Jahanbakhsh from Feyenoord and Brentford’s Saman Ghoddos. However, my attention is drawn to the defensive aspect of Iran’s game, and I anticipate that thwarting Hong Kong’s goal-scoring attempts won’t pose a challenge.
Ghalenoei has meticulously organized his team, conceding just one goal in their last five matches. Despite Hong Kong scoring four goals against Bhutan and achieving a resounding 10-0 victory over Brunei in September, they are likely to face difficulties against an Iranian side armed with experience and talent.
In October, Iran secured a 4-0 victory away against Qatar, a 3-1 win in Jordan, and a convincing 4-0 triumph over Angola in a home friendly. Other high scores include a 5-1 away win against Kyrgyzstan and 6-1 home demolition of Afghanistan, who I see as better opponents than Hong Kong. The expectation is that Iran can effortlessly score four or more goals here, setting the stage for a successful start to their campaign.
🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA vs. PAKISTAN 🇵🇰
Thursday 16th November – 16:30 GMT
⚽️ Saudi Arabia win with Under 4.5 Goals
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 3.25 at Bet365
Just a small 1 point bet here focusing on how bad the favourites are here. Saudi Arabia, among the major nations in Asian football, is currently experiencing one of their least impressive periods in recent memory. Since their victory against Argentina in Lionel Messi’s World Cup-winning tournament, their form has taken a significant downturn and have picked up one win in 11 games, a 2-0 home win over Yemen. Desperate to make a change, Roberto Mancini assumed the managerial role in August, succeeding Saad Al-Shehri, but so far improvements have been non-existent.
Since Mancini’s arrival, the team has participated in four friendlies, experiencing setbacks with losses at Newcastle United’s St. James Park against South Korea (1-0) and Costa Rica (3-1). In Portugal last month, they displayed some resilience by taking the lead against Nigeria but eventually settled for a 2-2 draw with a dramatically deflected Mohammed Kanno free-kick in the 10th minute of injury time. Nigeria dominated the game and had ample opportunities to score more goals.
In another match against Mali a few days later, the Saudis faced an even match but still ended up on the wrong side of a 3-1 scoreline. While Thursday’s opponents, Pakistan, are a very poor footballing nation and nowhere near on par with the teams mentioned above, Saudi Arabia’s last convincing victory by a five-goal margin dates back to March 2021, when they defeated Palestine 5-0.
Despite the significant disparity in FIFA rankings (57th vs. 193rd), it seems unlikely that Saudi Arabia will score five goals or secure a five-goal margin victory in this match. Pakistan recently overcame a substantial challenge, surprisingly defeating Cambodia 1-0 over two legs last month to qualify for the group stages. The last time Pakistan suffered a defeat by more than four goals was in 2007 during a World Cup 2008 qualifier at home against Iraq, where they were convincingly beaten 7-0. They’ll sit back here knowing they don’t have a chance and just try and keep the score down.
Good luck!
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