After holding the 2022 FIFA World Cup finals in the country, Qatar hosts the Asian Cup 2024 beginning tomorrow, Friday January 12th. The premier event in Asian football has seen four distinct winners in the last four editions, with only one of those teams holding a position among Asia’s top three nations in FIFA’s rankings.
However, I strongly believe that choosing a winner for this tournament is a two horse race, and the bookmakers look to have got this right. Qatar last hosted the Asian Cup in 2011, a tournament which Japan won. The Samurai Blue, the top-ranked team in Asia, were runners-up in 2021 and head into the tournament with an almost entirely Europe-based squad.
Despite carrying an injury, Brighton and Hove Albion midfielder Kaoru Mitoma has been included in the team, with hopes of being fit for the latter stages of the tournament. The squad’s depth is evident with the omission of players like Fortuna Dusseldorf’s Ao Tanaka, goalscorer against Spain in the 2022 World Cup, and Celtic’s Kyogo Furuhashi. Talents like Ko Itakura from Mönchengladbach, Arsenal’s Takehiro Tomiyasu, Wataru Endō from Liverpool, Takefusa Kubo of Real Sociedad, and Takumi Minamino from Monaco showcase the calibre of player now plying their trade in Europe’s major leagues.
They not does the Japanese hold the top rank in Asia but, based on recent displays, could emerge as a surprise contender for the 2026 World Cup—such has been their impressive form. Their standout performance at the 2022 World Cup saw victories against Germany and Spain, securing their group’s top spot, only to face defeat to Croatia in a penalty shootout. Under the guidance of head coach Hajime Moriyasu, who’s now in his sixth year at the helm, the Samurai Blue have consistently evolved and improved since their remarkable World Cup showing. In 2023, their performances continued to excite, securing victories against Peru (4-1), Turkey (4-2), and Canada (4-1), scoring goals for fun. While on the way to notch a remarkable 39 goals in 9 games, including an outstanding 4-1 friendly win against Germany in Wolfsburg stood out. We will be looking at goals throughout the month.
The only real threat I see for the Japanese are South Korea. The Taegeuk Warriors have not clinched the Asian Cup in over sixty years, yet head coach Jurgen Klinsmann expresses confidence in their potential. Ending 2023 with a five-game winning streak, scoring 19 goals and conceding none the Koreans stands as a formidable force. Notably, they are the sole team in the tournament boasting a player who featured on last year’s Ballon d’Or list, and surprisingly, it’s not Son Heung-Min.
Bayern Munich defender Kim Min-Jae held the distinction of being the highest-ranked defender on the Ballon d’Or list. His contributions were crucial in Napoli securing their first Serie A title since the era of Diego Maradona. With Kim anchoring the defence and an offensive line-up featuring two of the Premier League’s top six goal scorers this season, this team appears to be the strongest in recent memory. Korea’s attacking prowess is further augmented by the creativity of Paris Saint-Germain’s Lee Kang-in, adding complexity for opponents who can’t solely focus on stopping Son Heung-min.
Following their elimination from the Qatar World Cup by Brazil in the Round of 16, South Korea has seen a run of six victories, three draws, and two defeats, securing a total of 7 clean sheets. Placed in Group E alongside Bahrain, Jordan, and Malaysia, it’s highly probable they’ll secure three wins without conceding a goal against these weaker opponents. This path should lead them to the final, potentially against my favoured pick, Japan. However, recent head-to-head encounters seem more favourable for the Samurai Blue, who claimed 3-0 victories in the last two encounters—an international friendly in March 2021 and an EAFF Asian Football Championship match in July 2022, primarily featuring ‘B team’ selections.
The 2023 hosts, Qatar enter the tournament as the current holders of the Asian Cup. However, the home advantage didn’t quite favour them during the 2022 World Cup, where they lost all three games. Since then, the Qataris has won only six out of seventeen matches across all competitions in 2023.
They kick off the tournament against Lebanon at the Lusail Stadium, the same venue that witnessed the thrilling World Cup final between France and Argentina nearly 13 months ago and which will host this year’s tournament final. They play in Group A, comprising Tajikistan and a struggling China, seems to be the weakest based on FIFA’s rankings so they should not fall at the first hurdle.
Iran, led by new head coach Amir Ghalenoei, enters the Asian Cup after an unbeaten streak of 11 games in 2023, albeit against relatively weaker opponents. However, key players like Mehdi Taremi and Alireza Jahanbakhsh haven’t been in top form for FC Porto and Feyenoord, respectively, but Sardar Azmoun of AS Roma will always be amongst the goals.
Saudi Arabia‘s squad comprises players exclusively from the Saudi domestic league, which now boasts global superstars. Head coach Roberto Mancini hopes this exposure will benefit his team, especially star player Salem al-Dawsari, who’s excelled for Al-Hilal in the league, but so far the impact of Mancini has took a while to get going. Taking over in August, Mancini began his tenure with three defeats (Costa Rica, South Korea and Mali) and one draw (a 2-2 tie with Nigeria, with the Saudis grabbing the equaliser 10 minutes into injury time).
Subsequently, his team experienced a change in fortunes, securing four wins and one draw, albeit against predominantly weaker opponents. Victories against Pakistan, Jordan, Lebanon, and Hong Kong are nothing to brag about, and the 0-0 draw away to Palestine raised concerns. I don’t perceive the Saudis as a formidable threat in the competition, but they should comfortably advance from their group, featuring Oman, Kyrgyz Republic, and Thailand.
Australia, the 2015 Asian Cup winners, have a refreshed squad, with just nine players from the squad that reached the 2022 World Cup knockout rounds. Notable among their newcomers is 36-year-old Bruno Fornaroli, benefiting from FIFA’s eligibility change to participate in a major tournament late in his career. They sit in Group B, which includes Uzbekistan, Syria, and India, appears to be the strongest based on FIFA’s rankings. The potential knockout stages might set the stage for a final showdown between South Korea and Japan or between Iran and Saudi Arabia, assuming the teams in pot 1 win their groups. However, as Qatar’s 2019 victory and Iraq’s 2007 win demonstrated, the Asian Cup is notoriously unpredictable.
It’s disappointing that there’s limited television coverage for this tournament, potentially restricting the available markets with bookmakers. Nonetheless, we’ll adapt our betting strategies accordingly and some bookies are offering goalscorer and to be booked markets, so it looks promising.
VERDICT: Not an official bet, but I cannot see anyone defeating Japan and I think Samurai Blue will be lifting the trophy on February 10th.
Stay tuned to the website and our Facebook and Twitter accounts for all betting tips throughout the tournament.
Good luck!
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