The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) 34th edition starts in Ivory Coast on January 13th, wrapping up with the final in Abidjan on February 11th. For readers in the UK, all matches will be broadcasted on Sky Sports. For readers elsewhere, kindly refer to your local TV schedules for viewing options.

The Sky Sports agreement is great for us bettors, increasing the likelihood of seeing player markets and exclusive boosted deals from bookmakers now that the event will be televised. Hopefully, we have a diverse range of markets to choose from for our Bet Builders and Ladder bets. Fingers crossed.

The aim throughout the tournament is to provide daily picks for every match of both the tournament and the Asian Cup, which coincides with the AFCON, taking place from January 12th to February 10th.

African Cup of Nations – Top Goalscorer

⚽️ Patson Daka (Zambia) Top Goalscorer

💷 0.5pt each way (1/4 for the first four places)

Best Odds: 41.00 (40/1) at Bet365 & Sky Bet

As Senegal defends their championship, the tournament’s 24-team structure dictates that the top two teams from each group will advance to the knockout phase, accompanied by the four strongest third-placed teams. The previous AFCON in Cameroon witnessed surprises, such as Comoros and The Gambia progressing while Ghana, a four-time champion, flew home early. What should we anticipate from the 34th edition of the Nations Cup?

This is a very closely run contest, unlike the Asian Cup where I see one clear winner, this tournament has many challengers to lift the trophy on February 11th.

First up in Group A, hosts Cote d’Ivoire. They enter the tournament with some uncertainties. Despite not required to go through the qualification process, their performance was subpar. Two victories over Comoros, a win and a draw with Lesotho, and a split with Zambia raise concerns, especially considering their group opponents, whom they should dominate to be considered tournament favourites.

Under the management of Jean-Louis Gasset since May 2022, the team typically adopts a 4-3-3 formation. The midfield boasts considerable talent, featuring Seko Fofana and Franck Kessie, who both play in the Saudi Pro League. The tough-tackling Ibrahim Sangare, a regular starter for Nottingham Forest, adds to the formidable midfield, making it challenging for opponents in transition. The defensive strength lies in the trio of Odilon Kossounou (Bayer Leverkusen) and Ousmane Diomande (Sporting Lisbon) and Evan Ndicka (AS Roma). Despite the 3-0 defeat to Zambia, they played a pivotal role in the team only conceding two more goals in the other five matches.

Going forward, there is a worrying lack of goal scoring form. Sébastien Haller is expected to play a number nine role, but his struggle to find the net in 11 Bundesliga appearances for Borussia Dortmund raises concerns and the pressure may mount of Brighton’s Simon Adingra. However, unfortunately for Gasset, it seems Adingra may be unavailable for the group stage.

Also in Group A, the strongest team on paper, Nigeria boasts the CAF Player of the Year, Victor Osimhen of Napoli as their major threat. Osimhen scored 10 goals in six games in qualifying and has notched 8 times in 18 games for the Serie A champions. Joining him Ademola Lookman of Atalanta and AC Milan’s Samuel Chukwueze add some serious creativity to the ranks with other front men Umar Sadiq of Real Sociedad and Leciester City’s Kelechi Ihanacho options on the bench. A huge blow before the tournament was losing Victor Boniface who has been on fire for Bayer Leverkusen, withdrew with injury.

Losing Ihanacho’s teammate Wilfred Ndidi in midfield was another blow but, they have good cover with Brentford’s Frank Onyeka, Fulham’s Alex Iwobi and Southampton’s Joe Aribo. In defence, there is questions, conceding goals aplenty. Over the last 10 outings, they have been breached 19 times including conceding to teams like Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique and Sierra Leone. For me, despite the strength on paper, they are not a strong contender here, although they could easily outscore their opponents.

Group B sees Egypt as the likely winners over Ghana, Mozambique and Cape Verde. The form of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is vital in what seems to be very much a one-man team. They did reach the final in 2022 but they got there with underwhelming performances. Salah will see some support from Trezequet of Trabzonspor who has scored eight goals in as many games for club and country as of late. Eintracht Frankfurt’s Omar Marmoush is enjoying a solid season in Germany, scoring 7 in 15 games so he could provide the Egyptians with an additional goal-scoring option.

In midfield and at the back, the squad looks lacklustre. Arsenal’s Mohamed Elneny has hardly played and he is the sole player competing in the European top five leagues. In defence, the whole squad play in Egypt apart from former West Brom centre-back Ahmed Hegazy who now plays in Saudi.

Under Chris Hughton’s guidance, Ghana has adopted a European style of play, which doesn’t seem to be as effective in African football. Following the departure of Otto Addo post the Qatar World Cup, the Black Stars experienced mixed results, including a draw with Madagascar and losses to the Central African Republic and Comoros. Hughton’s squad lacks the star power that Ghana has been accustomed to in previous years, with West Ham United’s Mohammed Kudus being the standout player at 23 years old, despite his 30 international caps.

While the Ayew brothers, Jordan and Andre, continue to be part of the team, aged 32 and 34 respectively, questions arise regarding the impact they can make. The absence of Arsenal’s Thomas Partey, who withdrew due to injury after the squad announcement, dealt a significant blow to Hughton. However, attention should be given to Zurich’s Daniel Afriyie, who has shown promise with four goals in his six international caps.

In Hughton’s tenure, Ghana has recorded four wins, three defeats, and three draws in 10 games across all competitions. A poor campaign in the upcoming tournament might jeopardize Hughton’s coaching position, potentially leading to a change by February.

Group C sees the ‘Group of Death’ with Cameroon, Senegal, Guinea and The Gambia competing for qualification, and I see one of either Guinea and The Gambia as likely qualifiers. Guinea boasts one of the hottest strikers in the world in Stuttgart’s Serhou Guirassy who has made me a ton of money this season, scoring 17 goals in 14 Bundesliga games, adding another two in two in the DFB Pokal and three in nine games in the European Conference League.

Managed by Kaba Diawara, the Guineans employ a 4-4-2 formation, emphasising relentless pressing when not in possession. While their standout midfielder, Naby Keita of now Werder Bremen, has been side-lined for a significant portion of the Bundesliga season, he is now fully recovered and available for the tournament. This presents a substantial boost to Guinea, given Keita’s exceptional pressing abilities that complement an already formidable high-pressing strategy.

The Gambia sees my team, Newcastle United’s only player in the tournament, Yankuba Minteh, although he is currently experiencing a successful season on loan to Feyenoord. The 19-year-old is an electric left-winger and has been gaining comparisons to Sadio Mane at this early stage in his career. He has found four goals and one assist despite only starting a handful of games for the reigning Dutch champions.

Since taking charge of the country in 2018, Tom Saintfiet has recognised that their most effective approach involves adopting a defensive 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 formation, allowing the opponent to dominate possession and aim to capitalise on the counter. They could spring a surprise, however, the build was disrupted by a near disaster while traveling to the AFCON.

They narrowly avoided a potentially catastrophic incident while traveling from their capital city of Banjul when the aeroplane’s cabin saw their oxygen supply malfunction. Shortly after boarding the plane, several players lost consciousness. Just nine minutes into the flight, the pilot was compelled to return to Banjul Airport for an emergency landing. The incident unfolded as a critical situation that brought the team within half-an-hour of a life-threatening scenario.

The stronger teams of the group, Cameroon and Senegal should see a lot of the ball against these two opponents but again, they could struggle. Rigobert Song, after managing the Cameroon U23 teams for four years, assumed the role of national team manager. He transitioned the team to a 4-4-2 formation for the World Cup and all AFCON Qualifying matches, shifting their playing style to a more direct approach compared to the possession-dominant build-up seen in the previous Cup of Nations.

However, there are uncertainties surrounding the Cameroon attack. Heavy reliance on the 31-year-old Besiktas striker Vincent Aboubakar raises concerns, especially with another key attacker, Bryan Mbeumo of Brentford, side-lined due to injury. While Napoli’s Frank Zambo Anguissa bolsters the midfield, there is a lack of notable options beyond him. The defence exhibits inexperience, making the 16/1 odds, the best available at bookmakers, possibly generous. There is a likelihood that Song might face pressure to step down in February.

Senegal, widely considered favourites, raises some doubts in my view. The defending champions are entering a phase where key players are aging, and star player Sadio Mane has moved to Saudi Arabia after a challenging stint with Bayern Munich. At 31, the legs are still there in him, but without the talents of Liverpool with him under Jurgen Klopp, he saw a drastic dip in form.

Ismaila Sarr of Marseille offers an explosive pace and Nicolas Jackson of Chelsea can help out in the goals department with Rangers’ Abdallah Sima finding some form in Scotland so the attack has some quality. The defence and midfield are packed with players across the big leagues but like I said, they are aging. Midfielders, Idrissa Gueye and Cheikou Kouyate are both 34 but Spurs’ Pape Matar Sarr, who is having a great season in London, is only 21-years-old and will start in the midfield.

They should go far in the tournament, with Cameroon likely to head out to one of the lesser sides in the group, but when they come against one of the top sides, I see them crashing out. They have only lost two games within the last 12 months but draws to Togo (0-0), Rwanda (1-1), Benin (1-1) and a defeat to Uganda (1-0) gives me enough confidence that they may struggle in the latter stages.

Pegged as the third favourites in the outright betting, Algeria presents an enticing opportunity to clinch their third AFCON trophy. After crashing out of the 2021 tournament in the group stages, they enter the tournament in outstanding form, with their last defeat coming in November 2022 in 2-0 friendly defeat in Sweden. Since then they have drawn six games with a staggering 15 wins.

Coming into Group D, their starting line-up exudes tremendous quality, with Riyad Mahrez standing out. Although he may have shifted to Saudi Arabia at the club level, Mahrez remains a pivotal player for Algeria. He is recognised as one of the continent’s top performers, making him a potential standout player of the tournament.

In defence, Aissa Mandi and Rene Bensebani constitute one of the tournament’s most formidable center-back pairings. Ismael Bennacer (AC Milan), who has recently regained fitness, is poised to play a crucial role in midfield, partnering with Nabil Bentaleb (Lille). A crop of new young stars has emerged over the past year. Including talenbeted left-back Rayan Ait Nouri (Wolves), skilful midfielder Hichem Boudaoui (OGN Nice), Toulouse attacking midfielder, Fares Chaibi and creative playmaker Houssem Aouar (AS Roma).

The biggest threat in their group are Burkina Faso, and watch out for Edmond Tapsoba who is yet to be on the losing side when playing for Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen. He is not only an exceptional stopper but also one of the top central defenders when it comes to ball carrying and progressive passing. Tapsoba is crucial for his countries tactics of build at the back football.

Tunisia pose a threat in Group E after a decent World Cup campaign in 2022. They drew against Denmark and beat France but it wasn’t enough to get them to the last 16. They only conceded one goal in AFCON qualifying but they do lack the comparative talent of many other top nations in Africa. During the last AFCON, Tunisia utilised the 4-3-3, with Ellyes Skhiri now of Eintracht Frankfurt, operating as the holding midfielder. While they exhibited possession dominance against Gambia and Mauritania, their approach against Mali and Nigeria involved sitting a bit deeper, aiming for swift transition passes to advance the ball on the counterattack.

The Tunisians’ primary challenge lies in their offensive capabilities. While they posted strong numbers against weaker opponents, their chosen attack for this Africa Cup of Nations lacks notable talent. Even during the World Cup, they failed to generate over one expected goal in any of their three matches. Moreover, their offensive struggles were evident in the two qualifying matches against Mali, where they created minimal scoring opportunities.

Morocco enter the tournament on the back of strong World Cup 2022 campaign in Qatar, losing in the semi-finals to France, 2-0 becoming the first ever African semi-finalist. They are the favourites at many bookmakers in a close market, and it’s not hard to see why.

The tactical prowess of Walid Regragui’s team is evident in its exceptional flexibility. At the World Cup, they stood out for their adept out-of-possession defending, limiting opponents in the middle and showcasing a deadly counterattack. In the African setting, Morocco seamlessly takes control of matches, skilfully dismantling opposition while operating in a 4-1-4-1 formation that can adapt swiftly to changing circumstances.

Regragui utilises dynamic wingbacks that are two of the best in the world playing at the highest level, Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi and Bayern Munich’s Noussair Mazraoui, and they create havoc down the wings. They prefer building from the back, with ball-controlling central defenders, including make-shift sweeper Sofyan Amrabat, now of Manchester United, dropping deep to almost function as a third centre-back. This approach widens the two wingbacks, allowing them to surge up the pitch.

The Moroccans are known for employing a high defensive line, supported by the right personnel and athleticism, although in this tournament, it might not be required. They will hold a lot of possession, especially in the group stage, which will see them distributing the ball wide to their full-backs, with the aim to deliver crosses into the box for Sevilla’s target man Youssef En-Neysri. I fully expect Morocco to be up there with the challengers, however it is not as clear cut in the AFCON.

Also in Group F, are Zambia and in the top goal scorer markets, we have an official bet. Take Patson Daka of Zambia and Leicester City to be top scorer at 40/1 (available at Bet365 and Sky Bet at time of writing). This price is far too big, and I see him around 16/1-mark as a maximum. Zambia have done well in this tournament in the past and arrive in fine form, with Daka very prolific for his country. Scoring 26 in 51 appearances, he will be on penalties during the competition and against DR Congo and Tanzania he will see plenty opportunities. The Zambians should qualify to the next round, potentially in second place to Morocco where they will meet the runner-up of Group B – Ghana, Cape Verde, Egypt or Mozambique.

Zambia impressively emerged as winners of their AFCON Qualifying group, notably securing a 3-0 victory over host nation Cote d’Ivoire. Despite a perceived talent gap compared to top nations, Zambia’s results and underlying statistics showcase their effectiveness. In AFCON Qualifying, they won five out of six matches with a notable +2.1 expected goal differential.

What stands out about the Zambians is that during qualifying is their adaptability in employing different tactical styles. They demonstrated proficiency in high pressing, evident in their match against the Ivorians, where one of their three goals resulted from a high press. Additionally, Zambia displayed prowess in transition, scoring two goals off direct counterattacks.

We will be back this weekend with the first pick for the group stage as hosts Cote d’Ivoire face Guinea Bissau on Saturday evening.

Good luck!

WILL BURNS

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