🇧🇷 Brazil vs. Norway 🇳🇴 Betting Tips

Sunday 5th July – 9:00pm BST

🌍 FIFA World Cup – Round of 16 ⚽

🇧🇷 Brazil vs. Norway 🇳🇴

⚽️ BET 1: Bruno Guimaraes Assist
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 5.00 at SpreadEx

⚽️ BET 2: Brazil win/BTTS
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 3.40 at Bet365

Before the tournament began, plenty of the experts were adamant that Brazil’s midfield would be overrun, yet everything we’ve seen in the tournament they will win, despite Japan admittedly having Brazil stretched and scrambling throughout that first half. The presence of the experienced Casemiro, the enforcer, has been transformative. Since Carlo Ancelotti restored him to the heart of the side, it has completely liberated Bruno Guimarães to operate with far more freedom and influence.

During the tournament, Guimarães has been outstanding, producing four assists already. Two against Scotland, one versus Morocco, and another against Japan — while also creating nine chances overall. His club form mirrors this productivity, having delivered seven assists for Newcastle United last season. He will be responsible for corners and deep free‑kicks, swinging deliveries into dangerous areas for Brazil’s forwards. And even though we landed 5/1 last week against Japan, I still think the 4/1 with Spread Ex for another assist is more than fair.

Brazil continue to find ways to win, the epitome of this again shown last week up against a strong Japan side. That’s the Ancelotti effect in full view. The armchair experts and TV pundits write Brazil off at half‑time, only to completely reverse their opinions by full‑time. Short memories indeed. And if Brazil need reinforcement in this “over ran” midfield, they can call on Lucas Paquetá, Danilo Santos, Ederson, or the old stalwart Fabinho, who can come on and deliver those tactical fouls and crunching tackles in the final 20 minutes.

Norway present a strong challenge here, arguably a touch weaker than Japan, but they will score. I’ve said repeatedly that Brazil’s full‑backs are not up to the required level. And although the midfield took criticism for Kaishu Sano’s goal last week. Who gave the ball away to Sano? If you think Bruno… you’re wrong. If you think Casemiro, you’re wrong!

Bruno had just won the ball seconds earlier, and Casemiro played a perfectly weighted pass to right‑back Danilo of Flamengo, a player who is primarily a centre‑half, who then gifted possession straight to Sano with a suicide pass. Yes, Sano sprinted past Casemiro, who was on a yellow and couldn’t commit a tactical foul, before firing home, but the error originated from the flank.

Norway can and will score, and they might even take the lead. Those full‑backs remain Brazil’s biggest vulnerability. Yet, as I’ve said time and time again, Brazil possess extraordinary attacking talent ahead of Casemiro — the supposedly “overrun” midfielder who scored the headed equaliser last game. Bruno has an embarrassment of options to pick out: Raphinha is injured but available are Vinícius, Matheus Cunha, Gabriel Martinelli, the exciting youngsters Rayan and Endrick, and perhaps even Neymar getting minutes.

Norway have conceded at least one goal in each of their last six matches. In the group stage, Senegal scored twice, France put four past them — though Norway fielded a B‑team in that one, so context matters. Brazil, meanwhile, have scored at least two goals in each of their last three matches, including three against Scotland and Haiti. I fully expect goals tonight, and once again, Ancelotti’s Brazil should find a way to win.

Best of luck.

Will Burns

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