UEFA Nations League – Thursday 1st Oct – Preview & Betting Tips

Thursday 1st October from 5:00pm BST

🌍 UEFA Nations League – League D ⚽

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan vs. Liechtenstein 🇱🇮

🇲🇹 Malta vs. Gibraltar 🇬🇮

Liechtenstein remain one of the lowest-scoring nations in European football (ranked 206 in World Rankings). They have lost their last four matches without scoring a goal – all by 2-0. They fell 2–0 to Andorra, Cyprus, Lithuania, and Malta, even missing a pen the last game against the Maltese on Sunday. So we have to take Azerbaijan to win here and keep a clean sheet.

The Azerbaijanis, recently picked up a 1-1 draw away to Lithuania and a 1-0 friendly home win over Tajikistan (101), and the only thing worries me here is that the Tajikistan win is the only clean sheet they have kept since a 0-0 friendly draw away in Latvia in June 2025.

The second leg sees Malta (161) face Gibraltar (202) with a home win and under four goals in the game selected. Malta enter the match boasting strong momentum after securing three wins in three. Beating Azerbaijan 2-0 in the summer, then Andorra 2-1 and Liechtenstein 2-0 on Sunday.

Gibraltar are undefeated in their last four games with a pair of 0-0 draws against Sao Tome and Principe (195) and Andorra (172) in their last two. Prior to the that in the summer wins over Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands (197 and 209 respectively). But Malta are finding the net, and should have too much for the Gibraltarians, who lack the firepower to disrupt Malta’s midfield control.

Historically, meetings between these two micro-nations have saw only four goals in three games. I would be taking Malta to win to nil but could bitten by this against Andorra last week.

⚽️ DOUBLE
Azerbaijan win to nil
Malta win/Under 3.5 Goals
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 2.69 at Bet365

⚽️ CORRECT SCORE
Azerbaijan win 2-0
💷 0.5pt
Best Odds: 5.50 at Boyle Sports/Bet365/Sky Bet

⚽️ BET BUILDER
Azerbaijan win/Under 2.5 Goals
💷 0.5pt
Best Odds: 3.10 at Boyle Sports

Thursday 1st October – 7:45pm BST

🌍 UEFA Nations League – League A ⚽

🇬🇷 Greece vs. Netherlands 🇳🇱

In Association with TotalDutchFootball.com

Life under Xavi Hernandez started well for the Dutch against Germany, in a game where the points were shared but the Oranje did more than enough to clinch all three points. The Spaniard’s debut game as new boss, was followed up by a trip to Serbia with a 2-1 win thanks to two Mexx Meerdink goals, in a match that was far from comfortable.

Now Xavi and his side faces, Greece in their sold out Toumba Stadium and the fiery atmosphere in Thessaloniki will be a major test. The Greeks, despite missing out on World Cup qualification, are a side with an abundance of generational talent coming through. They come into this game with confidence as high as a giraffe’s arse with a 2-1 win over Serbia and defeated Jurgen Klopp’s Germany on Sunday in Augsburg.

Although they spent large periods without the ball in Germany, they managed to clinch a 1-0 win thanks to a Dimitrios Kourbelis goal on 74 minutes. Although he is reportedly side-lined for Thursday’s game. Ranked 46th in the World Rankings, the Greek head coach Ivan Jovanovic is actively transitioning his squad toward a younger core.

Former key veterans like Tasos Bakasetas are phased out or omitted, while younger talents such as Konstantinos Karetsas (aged 18, Dortmund), Christos Zafeiris (23, PAOK), and Cristos Tzolis (24, Arsenal) are taking centre stage. Former AZ striker Vangelis Pavlidis will sit up top, supported by Tzolis, Karetsas, while Konstantinos Mavropanos and Konstantinos Tsimikas will be the key men in midfield, anchoring the defence. They will adopt a high-energy pressing style with direct wing play through Tzolis, utilising the big man Pavlidis to hold play up.

Three huge absentees is up top for the Dutch with Donyell Malen (knee), Cody Gakpo (ankle) and Brian Brobbey (hamstring) set to be ruled out, Xavi is reported to deploy an experimental, youthful front line featuring Crysencio Summerville, Mexx Meerdink and Ruben van Bommel. Despite the changes up front, at the back, Denzel Dumfries, Jan Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, and Micky van de Ven is as solid as they’ll have available, ahead of Bart Verbruggen in goal. In the middle of the park, the midfield engine of Ryan Gravenberch, Joey Veerman, and Tijjani Reijnders will be tasked with managing match control and driving transition play.

On who wins this, I am leaving that one alone.

Greece look good, the Dutch are still a bit of unknown. The Oranje look vulnerable under pressure, a mistake lead to Serbia’s equaliser last game. In both German and Serbian games, they missed several good chances. So I would lean towards positive Greek result but like I say, I’m passing on that.

I want to hone in on Ruben Van Bommel, if he starts, for two bets here with good value. He had saw four bookings so far, one yellow in the Champions League tie against Shakhtar and three in the Eredivisie, and one of them should have been a red – see foul on Aaron Bouwman vs. Ajax.

If he does play, he will be up against Georgios Vagiannidis of Sporting on Thursday night. Blessed with strong burst acceleration and stamina, the graduate of Panathinaikos’ academy, can cover the entire right flank for 90 minutes. His speed makes him a weapon on counter-attacks and allows him to recover quickly in defence so I think the pressure could be on Van Bommel defensively too. Vagiannidis has saw an opposition winger booked already in the Portuguese league this season when Gustavo Silva was booked for Vitoria Guimaraes on the opening day of the season.

Van Bommel card and two fouls look a good bet here, and I would not stop combining them if you feel the price is right.

Italian referee Marco Guida takes the whistle on Thursday. He’s already shown a strict hand this season by issuing seven yellow cards, with 29 fouls in an NK Celje vs. Aluminij Champions League qualifier, and three in a Benfica vs. AGF Aarhus Europa League qualifying tie, and six more in two Serie A matches. Here’s hoping RvB makes his book on Thursday evening.

⚽️ Ruben van Bommel to commit two or more fouls
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 2.20 at Bet365

⚽️ Ruben van Bommel to be booked
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 6.50 at Sky Bet

Thursday 1st October – 7:45pm BST

🌍 UEFA Nations League – League B ⚽

🇮🇪 Ireland vs. Austria 🇦🇹

A favourite of mine, Troy Parrott enters Thursday night’s clash against Austria in superb goal scoring form, having opened the scoring in Ireland’s 3–0 Nations League victory over Israel. Operating as the clinical focal point of Ireland’s attack, Parrott has averaged a goal every 97 minutes over his last eight international appearances.

That momentum is bolstered by a sharp start to his club campaign with Real Betis following his high-scoring stint at AZ Alkmaar, leaving him in prime physical sharpness and full of confidence inside the 18-yard box. The tactical matchup also heavily favours Parrott due to Austria’s aggressive, high-pressing setup under Ralf Rangnick. Austria frequently push a high defensive line that leaves vast space behind their centre-backs in transition.

Das Team have struggled to protect their backline, going six matches without a clean sheet. Conceding to some dross: 3 goals to Algeria in the World Cup (which was a sham actually) and a goal each of the last two Nations League games against Israel and Kosovo.

Parrott’s primary strengths, his sharp off-the-ball running and willingness to play on the shoulder of the last defender, make his pace on quick turnovers Ireland’s most direct path to goal against the Austrian central defenders.

To top it off, Parrott’s role as one of Ireland’s primary spot-kick takers helps us. Austria’s physical aerial style and aggressive defending inside the box routinely lead to high foul counts and we could see a penalty conceded.

Whether capitalising on a quick counter-attack, converting a penalty or just being in the right place, at the right time… Parrott can notch for Ireland here.

⚽️ Troy Parrott to score
💷 1pt
Best Odds: 3.30 at Paddy Power

If you wish to watch me discuss these selections and Friday’s tips, watch me as a guest on the Premier League Gambling Podcast here:

Best of luck.

Will Burns

Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org