Friday 13th November – 7:45pm BST
🌍 UEFA Nations League – League B ⚽
🏴 Scotland vs. North Macedonia 🇲🇰
Scotland return to Hampden Park on Friday night knowing that victory over North Macedonia is essential if they are to keep their UEFA Nations League ambitions alive. While recent results have been inconsistent for Steve Clarke’s successors, the visit of a struggling North Macedonia side presents an opportunity to build momentum heading into the final round of fixtures.
The visitors arrive in Glasgow rooted to the bottom of their group after losing all four Nations League matches so far. Even more concerning is their lack of attacking threat, having failed to score a single goal while conceding ten across those four defeats. Under Goce Sedloski, manager since December last year, they have gone without a win in eight games, with two draws and ZERO goals. The 0-0 draws away to Ireland and Bosnia were impressive results, but that’s where the praise ends.
Scotland’s form, now under the tutelage of Sébastien Pocognoli, has not been perfect, but there have been encouraging signs. The Scots opened their campaign with a draw against Slovenia before suffering a heavy defeat to Switzerland. A 2-0 victory away to North Macedonia provided a timely boost before another narrow loss to Slovenia last time out.
Looking at the recent form of both sides, the contrast is clear. Scotland have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five matches, but they remain competitive against stronger opposition and have at least shown an ability to create chances in difficult fixtures. North Macedonia, meanwhile, are enduring a miserable run. They have lost five consecutive matches in all competitions and have failed to score in six successive internationals according to several preview sources.
The previous meeting between the sides in October also offers a useful guide. Scotland travelled to Skopje and secured a comfortable 2-0 victory, controlling large periods of the match and limiting North Macedonia’s attacking opportunities.
That win continued a strong recent head-to-head record for Scotland. The Scots have won three of the previous five meetings between the nations and have claimed victories in each of the last two encounters.
Looking at some value here, I’m taking Scotland to win both halves. At first glance, backing a team that has scored only three goals in four Nations League matches may appear ambitious. However, the bet is more about North Macedonia’s weaknesses than Scotland’s attacking numbers.
Their recent defeats all point to a Scotland victory. Defeated 2-0 by Slovenia, 2-0 to Scotland, a pair of 3-0’s defeats to Switzerland… without finding the net. That inability in front of goal puts huge pressure on their defence. Once they fall behind, they have shown little evidence of possessing the attacking quality required to force their way back into games.
| ⚽ Scotland to win both halves 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.50 at Boyle Sports |
Friday 13th November – 7:45pm BST
🌍 UEFA Nations League – League C ⚽
🇧🇬 Bulgaria vs. Iceland 🇮🇸
Iceland travel to Plovdiv knowing that a victory over Bulgaria would leave them firmly in control of Nations League – Group C. The Scandinavians arrive as group leaders and overwhelming favourites but Will Burns thinks the win will be inevitable with an in-form player suiting up for Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s men.
The pair met in Reykjavik in October, when Iceland produced a convincing 3-0 victory, with Orri Óskarsson scoring twice before Mikael Ellertsson added a late third. The hosts enjoyed the better of the chances throughout the contest and if not for Bulgarian’s ‘keeper Daniel Naumov prevented an even heavier defeat by saving a late penalty, one of the six shots on target for Iceland.
The Bulgarian consistency has been the main challenge during this Nations League campaign. Collecting a win, a draw and two defeats in their first four games, getting three goals and conceding five. Although, there were positive signs last time beating Luxembourg 2-0 away, but goals have generally been difficult to find. They have scored only once in their two home matches in the group and will be looking for greater attacking output from players such as Atanas Iliev, Georgi Rusev and Lukas Petkov.
The return fixture against Iceland also provides an opportunity to show improvement after the defeat in Reykjavik, where Bulgaria struggled to contain Iceland’s movement and technical quality in the final third. Iceland’s campaign has been characterised by solid organisation and a strong defence. Unbeaten through four matches, recording two wins, two draws, conceding just the one goal.
The Icelandic attack has shared the goals around, but much of the attention has centred on the partnership between Orri Óskarsson and Andri Guðjohnsen, their combination play against Luxembourg as outstanding. Winning 3-0, the pair grabbed a goal each and Guðjohnsen got the assist for his striking partner’s goal.
For betting purposes, I want to focus on Guðjohnsen, whose form for both club and country has been phenomenal. The Blackburn Rovers forward has enjoyed an excellent season in the Championship, a serious contender for the top scorer in the division. He has scored eleven goals in 15 appearances in all competitions. His recent form has been on fire, scoring six goals in the last five outings. He also scored a pair of braces against Wrexham and West Brom.
During the September international window, Guðjohnsen scored in 1-1 draw with Estonia before following that up with the aforementioned goal and an assist against Luxembourg. Guðjohnsen has emerged as one of the first names in Gunnlaugsson’s teamsheet and one has to think he could be heading out of Blackburn come January for bigger and better things. His movement in the penalty area, strong aerial presence and growing confidence in front of goal make him one of the players most likely to influence Friday’s contest.
The group table and recent form suggest Iceland enter the match with momentum, particularly given their defensive record and the confidence gained from the October meeting between the teams. Bulgaria, however, will hope home advantage can help produce a more competitive performance than the one seen in Reykjavik.
Regardless of the result, much of the spotlight is likely to fall on Andri Guðjohnsen, whose impressive season for Blackburn has seen a growing importance to Iceland. Let’s take him to score at Sky Bet (3.00) and let’s also try our hand at him getting a brace at 15.00.
| ⚽ Andri Gudjohnsen to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.00 at Sky Bet ⚽ Andri Gudjohnsen to score 2 or more goals 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 15.00 at Sky Bet |
Friday 13th November – 7:45pm BST
🌍 UEFA Nations League – League D ⚽
🇦🇩 Andorra vs. Gibraltar 🇬🇮
I really for the life of me can figure out why are Gibraltar available at such generous odds against Andorra here?
Am I convinced the visitors will come away with the win? Not necessarily, but at the prices on offer I can’t help sticking a point on here.
This match brings together two of Europe’s lowest-ranked national sides, with very little separating them on paper so I really don’t understand the price.
Gibraltar arrive with a renewed sense of belief following their 2-0 victory away to Liechtenstein and that result ended a winless run in competitive matches stretching back to October 2024, when they defeated San Marino 1-0 on home soil, and should give them confidence heading into this encounter.
Andorra also recorded a win over Liechtenstein in a friendly back in June 2-0, but there was little to separate Gibraltar and Andorra when they met in September, finishing 0-0.
The Andorrans come into the match having taken just one point from three Nations League fixtures and have scored only once in the group. Goals have been a recurring issue for Koldo Álvarez’s side, who continue to be competitive defensively but struggle to convert pressure into clear chances.
Gibraltar’s mood is notably brighter as Scott Wiseman’s side remain unbeaten in this Nations League, with the win in Liechtenstein, and the 1-1 draw away to Malta, they head into this fixture with growing confidence that they can compete for top spot in the group.
Recent head-to-head statistics also favour Gibraltar. Andorra have never beaten them in four previous meetings, with Gibraltar winning two and drawing two. The last four meetings have produced just two goals in total, highlighting how tight these encounters tend to be.
| ⚽ Gibraltar win 💷 1pt Best Odds: 5.25 at Bet365 |
If you wish to watch me discuss these selections, see me as a guest on the Premier League Gambling Podcast here:
Best of luck.
Will Burns
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