Thursday 12th November – 7:45pm BST
🌍 UEFA Nations League – League A ⚽
🇨🇿 Czechia vs. Spain 🇪🇸
And just like that, we are back. The international window is upon us and Thursday night sees Czechia face World Cup holders Spain in a match that carries a fascinating subplot. Not only do La Roja arrive in Prague with qualification already secured, but Czechia’s new head coach, Santi Denia, will come up against the footballing nation and coaching culture that shaped his career.
Results have been difficult since Denia took charge. Czechia have lost all four Nations League matches in Group A, suffering defeats against Croatia, England and Spain before failing again at Wembley in October. They have scored only twice while conceding ten, leaving them rooted to the bottom of the group. Yet the story of Czechia’s recent performances goes deeper than the results.
When the Czech FA appointed Denia in July, it was viewed as a major shift in philosophy. He became the first foreign manager in the history of the Czech national team and arrived with a reputation for possession football, technical development and long-term team building.
Since then, the Czech media have repeatedly highlighted how Denia is attempting to modernise the national team’s style. Rather than building around the traditional Czech strengths of physicality, direct football and set-piece dominance, he has pushed for a more combination-based approach focused on playing through midfield and controlling possession. That change has not come without criticism across the country.
Czechia still possess the type of squad that should be dangerous from crosses, corners and aerial deliveries. With players such as Rangers’ striker Ryan Naderi (6ft 4), Tomáš Souček (also 6ft 4), Ladislav Krejčí (6ft 3) and a number of physically imposing defenders, the Czechs continue to have significant height throughout the side. Although up top, Patrik Schick retired from international football, the 6ft 6inch Tomáš Chorý recently carried an injury and although now fit, has been not called up this time round.
Denia appears determined to prioritise technical football and patient build-up play rather than making aerial dominance the centrepiece of his game plan. The problem is that the transition remains incomplete. Czechia have looked comfortable in possession at times but have struggled in both penalty areas. Their four Nations League defeats have exposed defensive vulnerabilities while also highlighting a lack of cutting edge in attack.
Thursday therefore offers a chance to measure the progress of Denia’s project against the nation whose football philosophy he is attempting to introduce. However, against the World Champions Spain who are currently on a 43-match unbeaten run?!?
They arrive top of the group winning all four matches, scoring 12 goals and building a three-point advantage over Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions at the top.
Their previous meeting with Czechia in October ended in a 3-1 victory for Luis de la Fuente’s side. Spain controlled long spells of the contest before Czechia briefly threatened a comeback through Jiří Sláma. The match was ultimately settled by a late strike from Mikel Merino.
And that goal was another example of a growing trend. Few midfielders in world football have developed a reputation quite like Merino.
The Arsenal midfielder has become Spain’s ultimate problem-solver, repeatedly emerging with crucial goals when matches enter their decisive stages. His winner against Germany at Euro 2024 remains one of the defining moments of Spain’s triumph, while the 2026 World Cup elevated his status even further.
During the summer tournament, Merino scored dramatic late winners against both Portugal and Belgium after entering from the bench. Against Portugal he struck six minutes after being introduced, while his goal against Belgium sent Spain into the semi-finals. He has become a lethal scoring threat in the closing stages of matches for both Arsenal and Spain, and his October performances provided another reminder of his importance.
Against Czechia in Oviedo, he came off the bench and scored Spain’s third goal in the 89th minute to seal a 3-1 win. Spanish reports highlighted how his finish removed any lingering tension after the visitors had reduced the deficit. He followed that by producing a match-winning brace against Croatia in Spain’s subsequent Nations League fixture, taking his tally to three goals in two Spain appearances during the window.
While Merino’s league statistics for Arsenal do not fully capture his influence, yet to score a goal this season in the league or the Champions League. However, Spain continue to benefit from his knack of arriving in the right place at the right moment.
Czechia’s biggest challenge will be balancing Denia’s possession-based ideals with the practical demands of facing the strongest national side in world football. The hosts need goals and points, yet abandoning their new identity would undermine the long-term project that Denia was hired to oversee.
Spain, meanwhile, arrive with confidence, depth and a squad full of players capable of deciding matches. If the game remains close entering the final stages, recent history suggests there may be no more dangerous man on the pitch than Mikel Merino, whose career has increasingly become defined by late interventions and decisive goals.
Let’s back Merino to score and Spain to come out on top and the best price is 3.20 at Bet365.
WARNING: Merino has not been in the starting line-up for Spain in the last NINE internationals (vs. Uruguay in the World Cup) so be prepared to back him once he comes on as substitute in-play. If so, drop the Spain to win leg of the bet.
| ⚽ Spain win/Mikel Merino to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.20 at Bet365 |
If you wish to watch me discuss these selections, see me as a guest on the Premier League Gambling Podcast here:
Best of luck.
Will Burns
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