Wednesday 1st July – 5.00pm BST
🌍 FIFA World Cup – Round of 32 ⚽
🏴 England vs. DR Congo 🇨🇬
| ⚽️ BET BUILDER #1 England win to nil Harry Kane to score 💷 1pt Best Odds: 2.87 at Bet365 ⚽️ BET BUILDER #2 Elliot Anderson to make two or more tackles Elliot Anderson to commit two or more fouls Elliot Anderson to to be fouled two or more times 💷 1pt Best Odds: 3.25 at Bet365 ⚽️ BET 3: First Half – Under 0.5 Goals 💷 0.5pt Best Odds: 3.00 at Paddy Power ⚽️ LONGSHOT: STATS SPECIALS Ezri Konza and Marc Guehi to win 7 fouls between them 💷 0.5pt Best Odds:11.00 at Paddy Power & Betfair Only |
Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions should be winning this, though the same was said before the Ghana match. I’m comfortable going back to two picks that have served well throughout the tournament: England to win without conceding, and Harry Kane to score. DR Congo’s defence is experienced and stubborn, but England have enough quality to keep applying pressure and eventually clinch a 1-0 or 2-0 win. After all, England were flawless defensively in qualifying, the only UEFA team not to concede a single goal. Kane has already three goals in the tournament, will be on penalties, a threat at corners and free-kicks. Scored 64 goals in 56 games for Bayern Munich last season. Enough said.
Also, I’m going back in on Elliot Anderson as this missed by one foul last week (which the referee played on two of them last game!). Anderson has developed into a top‑class central midfielder and one of the first names on Tuchel’s teamsheet. His World Cup debut against Croatia showed his combative edge, he led the match with five foul involvements, more than any other player, and could easily have drawn more under a stricter referee. He also finished last season as the Premier League’s most‑fouled player, averaging 2.19 per 90 minutes, a sign of how often he attracts contact.
For Nottingham Forest this past season, Anderson made 104 tackles (2.77 per 90) and averaged 14.47 duels per 90. For England, in the group stages, he’s producing 2.18 fouls committed, 2.90 fouls drawn and 2.54 tackles per 90. It’s clear he’s always at the centre of the action, which makes this bet builder very appealing for a player who thrives in the thick of the battle.
I really like the angle of no goals in the first half, especially after watching England’s last two matches against opponents of similar calibre to DR Congo. They beat Panama 2–0, but it was 0–0 at half‑time, and they followed that with a goalless draw against Ghana. England have failed to score before the interval in five of their last eight fixtures, and their opponents have also failed to score in the first half in four of those eight.
DR Congo’s numbers point the same way: five of their last eight matches have been 0–0 at half‑time, and they have failed to score before the break in six of those eight. With that, the 2/1 on Under 0.5 First Half goals looks good a shout. I do expect England to win this game to nil, and Kane should get on the scoresheet but he may have to wait until after his half time orange.
For the final bet, this is available at Paddy Power and Betfair only, under the “Stats Specials” section. We are looking for England’s central defensive pairing of Marc Guehi and Ezri Konza to win seven or more fouls between them. This sounds a lot but at 10/1, it’s not and here’s why.
Ezri Konsa started all three of England’s group matches, winning two fouls against Croatia and Ghana and three against Panama. Marc Guehi came in for John Stones for the Ghana and Panama fixtures, helping England record back‑to‑back clean sheets — and he drew plenty of contact himself, winning two fouls versus Panama and seven against Ghana. That meant England’s centre‑backs combined for nine fouls won in the Ghana game and five in the Panama match.
Now the knockout stage begins, with England facing DR Congo in a do‑or‑die tie. Congo’s forwards and midfielders have shown a tendency to commit fouls: striker Yoane Wissa has four across the three group games, attacking midfielder Samuel Moutoussamy six, and Edo Kayembe five from only two starts. Given those numbers, the price on offer for England’s defenders to draw fouls looks excellent value.
Will Burns
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